Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models

ESTIMATING THE EXPECTED PREDICTIVE ACCURACY OF ECONOMETRIC MODELS BY RAY C. FAIRI A method is proposed in this paper for estimating the uncertainty of a forecast from an econometric model. The method accounts for the four main sources

A method is proposed in this paper for estimating the uncertainty of a forecast from an econometric model. The method accounts for the four main sources of uncertainty: uncertainty due to (1) the error terms, (2) the coefficient estimates, (3) the exogenous-variable forecasts, and (4) the possible misspecification of the model. It also accounts for the fact that the variances of forecast errors...

Evaluating the Predictive Accuracy of Models Ray

A consensus approach for estimating the predictive accuracy of dynamic models in biology

Mathematical models that predict the complex dynamic behaviour of cellular networks are fundamental in systems biology, and provide an important basis for biomedical and biotechnological applications. However, obtaining reliable predictions from large-scale dynamic models is commonly a challenging task due to lack of identifiability. The present work addresses this challenge by presenting a met...

Predictive Evaluation of Econometric Forecasting Models in Commodity Futures Markets

The predictive accuracy of various econometric models, including random walks, vector autoregressive and vector error-correction models, are investigated using daily futures prices of 4 commodities (the S&P500 index, treasury bonds, gold and crude oil). All models are estimated using a rolling window approach, and evaluated by both in-sample and out-of-sample performance measures. The criteria ...

the effects of error correction methods on pronunciation accuracy

هدف از انجام این تحقیق مشخص کردن موثرترین متد اصلاح خطا بر روی دقت آهنگ و تاکید تلفظ کلمه در زبان انگلیسی بود. این تحقیق با پیاده کردن چهار متد ارائه اصلاح خطا در چهار گروه، سه گروه آزمایشی و یک گروه تحت کنترل، انجام شد که گروه های فوق الذکر شامل دانشجویان سطح بالای متوسط کتاب اول passages بودند. گروه اول شامل 15، دوم 14، سوم 15 و آخرین 16 دانشجو بودند. دوره مربوطه به مدت 10 هفته ادامه یافت و د...